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The core components of new energy vehicles: the global trend of drive motors


With the increasing penetration of global automotive electrification, the drive motor industry will usher in a rapid expansion of the overall scale. In this process, third-party motor manufacturers with economies of scale and technical advantages will have the opportunity to rapidly expand their market share and gain substantial growth in performance.

Global Drive Motor Market Trend

According to estimates, with the rapid advancement of global vehicle electrification, the new energy vehicle motor system market will expand rapidly, and the market size is expected to grow from $2.3 billion in 2015 to $31.8 billion in 2030.

The new energy vehicle motor system mainly includes two parts: the motor and the inverter. Although, like most other auto parts, these two parts have been facing price reduction pressure for a long time, due to the increase in the total number of new energy vehicles, the industry as a whole There is still a lot of room for growth. We expect the average annual growth rate of the market size to be around 18%-20% by 2030. In terms of the unit price of the

system, the overall development of the motor system in the direction of high power has also brought about an increase in the assembly price.

According to estimates, under the neutral assumption, the sales volume of electric vehicles will reach 20 million units in 2030, accounting for 16%-18% of the total sales volume of passenger cars in that year. However, if we put it into an optimistic scenario, that is, under the conditions of a sharp decline in battery prices and more stringent environmental protection policies, the growth rate of electric vehicle sales is likely to rise sharply. We expect that under an optimistic scenario, the total annual sales of new energy vehicles may reach the level of 30 million units, accounting for about 25%-27% of the car sales that year.

It is estimated that the power demand of the single-motor hybrid vehicle is about 30kw, the dual-motor plug-in hybrid power is about 50-100kw, and the motor power of the pure electric vehicle is about 200kw.

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Motor Market Situation

We expect the average annual growth rate of motor sales to reach 18% by 2030, and the overall sales volume of the industry to reach $19.5 billion by 2030, nearly 17 times higher than the level of $1.2 billion in 2015. Sales of electric motors are expected to rise from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030, while the number of single-vehicle motors is expected to decline from 1.8 to 1.4, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of sales of single-motor pure electric vehicles.

However, we expect the unit price of the motor to increase further, from the current $350 to $380, mainly driven by the wider application of high-priced high-power motors.

In the long-term development of the motor industry, the rise of third-party suppliers will be the general trend. If we observe the current situation of the Japanese automobile industry chain, it is not difficult to find that the top three leading positions tend to supply motor products, which is not only related to the traditional genes of Japanese manufacturing enterprises, but also related to the stage of development of the industry.

If we compare the development history of PC and mobile phone industries, it is not difficult to find that these two industries are highly integrated in upstream and downstream production in the initial stage. Whether HP, Apple, Silicon Map in the PC industry, Nokia and Motorola in the mobile phone industry are highly integrated in the industrial chain, because the product upgrading speed is fast in the initial stage, and upstream parts suppliers are required to respond quickly and cooperate with each other, therefore, the integrated production model has a high cost performance;

However, in the middle and late stages of the development of the industry, due to the expansion of the entire market, and the speed of product upgrading does not need to be as fast as the initial stage, the third-party suppliers take the entire market as The scale effect of the customer object is reflected, which also gave birth to the rise of a series of third-party suppliers such as Foxconn, Micron, and Hynals.

new energy vehicle motor industry is no exception, from the current point of view, Honda has announced that it will cooperate with Hitachi to produce motors. At the same time, Nissan also mentioned at the investor exchange meeting that it may start to purchase electric motors in the future.

At present, Japanese motor companies have begun to respond to the trend changes brought about by electrification. We expect that Electric Equipment and Aisin Seiki will first take advantage of their existing scale advantages and take market share at a lower cost, while the following power and Mingdian will quickly follow suit.

At present, the average gross profit margin of the motor industry is about 30%, and the scale of production is one of the main factors that determine the gross profit margin.

Inverter Industry Situation

We predict that the inverter industry will also see rapid growth. According to estimates, the sales revenue of the inverter market will rise from $1.2 billion in 2015 to 13.3 billion in 2030.

From the perspective of sales, because the ratio of inverter to motor is basically 1:1, it is expected that its total sales will increase from 3.6 million in 2015 to 49 million in 2030.

At the same time, the price of bicycle matching will drop from $300-$400 to $200-$300, mainly due to the cost scale effect after the volume.


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